SirEdward
Well-Known Member
[...]the real death rate might be closer to 0.5%, which would of course double the case of infected people to 1.2 million.
I doubt it. Partly because South Korea had 1,1%, and their numbers are way more reliable than China's; partly because Italy has an older population that both China and South Korea; partly because, outside Wuhan, China has never been overwhelmed, nor was South Korea.
To be honest, I think the right figure for Italy is not really 1%, but more like 2-3%, which would put the total infected cases to 250.000-300.000.
Which, incidentally would mean that here in Germany we are still in a realtively good corridor in terms of testings.
Yes, but it also depends on how you count the deaths figure. One of the easiest things to lower the numbers is to attribute the cause of death to a comorbidity.
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On a happier note: the numbers are still not that clear, but it seems the numbers are slowing down in Italy for the third day in a row. And for the first time, the cases in my region slowed down too (which is a more reliable data than the national, more volatile data).