UK banning sale of new ICE cars in 2035

prizrak

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Yet more stupidity from a government.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/britain-ban-sale-new-gas-diesel-hybrid-cars-2035-n1129616
nbc said:
LONDON — Britain will ban the sale of new gas, diesel and hybrid vehicles from 2035, five years earlier than planned, in an attempt to reduce air pollution and fossil fuel emissions, the government announced on Tuesday.

This is going to be somewhat political, but why do EVs need to be pushed on people instead of allowing them to compete on their own merits?
 
Further, electric is still in its infancy. Instead of forcing sales to change, how about you invest in charging stations or fuck, invest in hydrogen? Either one with any investment to gives options would be so nice.

Family size electric cars are still a wealthy mans thing, saying “you can’t buy that skoda Fabia because it’s fossil fuel, here’s a 35-50,000 vehicle instead. Just work harder, easy!”

Also, I want options, I don’t want to be stuck with a reliance on one fuel.
 
Pretty much, as usual with all these “green” laws the people getting screwed are the lower income ones who can’t afford shiny and new “green” tech.

Hell even with my pretty good household income I couldn’t afford a family EV (that’s not even taking into account that I have nowhere to charge it)
 
I doubt this is actually going to happen but some companies are making progress towards affordable, small cars. The Corsa-e caught my eye, the price seems reasonable at £26,500 but it only does 209 miles max at the moment and you still need that place to charge it.

I can only see California going full electric in the next 25 or so years due to the weather and open space, the place will look like it does in BladeRunner 2049.

download-6-49.jpg
 
I doubt this is actually going to happen but some companies are making progress towards affordable, small cars. The Corsa-e caught my eye, the price seems reasonable at £26,500 but it only does 209 miles max at the moment and you still need that place to charge it.

I can only see California going full electric in the next 25 or so years due to the weather and open space, the place will look like it does in BladeRunner 2049.

download-6-49.jpg

Flying over Nevada, there’s already places like that. :)
 
I doubt this is actually going to happen but some companies are making progress towards affordable, small cars. The Corsa-e caught my eye, the price seems reasonable at £26,500 but it only does 209 miles max at the moment and you still need that place to charge it.

I can only see California going full electric in the next 25 or so years due to the weather and open space, the place will look like it does in BladeRunner 2049.

download-6-49.jpg
CA is a huge state, SF/LA and maybe San Diego metro can get away with EVs but rest of the state...
 
See, that's what you get for voting Boris.
 
Instead of outright banning ICE cars, why not mandate all new fuel stations must have at least 2 charging stations and provide incentive money to do so? It seems hairbrained to not do that as a an owner of the fuel stations in the first place. While we’re at it, that big awning that serves no purpose other than to protect you from rain and sun? Who’s to say solar panels couldn’t be put up there?
 
Pretty much, as usual with all these “green” laws the people getting screwed are the lower income ones who can’t afford shiny and new “green” tech.

Hell even with my pretty good household income I couldn’t afford a family EV (that’s not even taking into account that I have nowhere to charge it)

And when the law comes into force it will also artificially inflate the values or remaining ICE vehicles as demand increases among people who can't afford or charge a new EV.

But a week is a long time in politics, and 15 years is an age in terms of technology. If you think about the cost of the first iPhone at launch in 2007, and compare it with my current phone which is massively more capable and cost me £180 there is ample time for the tech to improve and for the economies of scale to kick in. The infrastructure will have to evolve and grow with demand.

No need to panic just yet.
 
Instead of outright banning ICE cars, why not mandate all new fuel stations must have at least 2 charging stations and provide incentive money to do so?
This is not a bad idea however with charging times being what they are going to a "gas" station to fill up your EV like you would with an ICE car is not really feasible. Would you really want to go and spend an hour at a gas station just to fill up? I know I wouldn't, hell I don't have an hour to waste in the first place.

You also end up with the issue that was posted in Tesla thread, where there were like 20 superchargers and a huge line of cars waiting for them to become free.

The reality is that at this point if you can't charge where you park an EV is likely not for you.

But a week is a long time in politics, and 15 years is an age in terms of technology. If you think about the cost of the first iPhone at launch in 2007, and compare it with my current phone which is massively more capable and cost me £180 there is ample time for the tech to improve and for the economies of scale to kick in.

TL;DR Cars have different challenges to phones and it takes a long time to develop new technologies. I also have fundamental issue with government mandating some technology based on some agenda that isn't necessarily going to benefit their citizens.

You are comparing apples (no pun intended) and oranges. When it comes to computational power one of the biggest things is a number of transistors you can cram into your silicone. We been getting better at making them smaller and smaller and cramming more and more of them into the same space. The other part of that equation is ability to run computations in parallel, for example one of the reasons people use GPUs to mine bitcoin is because they are way better at parallel processing. Also don't forget that a lot of improvements aren't actually due to hardware but rather software, it's easy (in a sense that it doesn't require physical changes to the device) to write efficient code that will take full advantage of available power.

When it comes to EVs there are challenges that involve laws of thermodynamics, for example electric motors are already around 90-95% efficient, there isn't much room for improvement as most of the loses come from things you can't do a whole lot about, like resistance of the wiring and friction from shafts and such.

That leaves with battery technology, it takes time to go from a small scale prototype to full scale production, if a breakthrough were to happen tomorrow you can easily expect roughly a decade from introduction to full scale, it took Sony roughly 10 years to create the first commercially available Li-po cell after the technology was invented. Keep in mind that aside from the normal issues of getting something ready for full scale production (like building or retooling factories) you also have to design for safety, these are cars after all and they will get into crashes just think of the Rimac that Hammond crashed and how they couldn't put it out because of thermal runaway.

As for economies of scale, the one thing most people seem to overlook is that we already have economies of scale for EVs, they all use basically off the shelf components. Electric motors are all basically the same and we have been making them in a million different applications for over a century (your car has an electric starter motor, it's design isn't massively different from what drives a train or a Tesla). And the batteries that these cars use are in your smartphone, laptop, tablet, headphones (if you use wireless), smart watch, vape, etc...

There is also the fact that it takes time to develop and certify new cars and I simply don't think that 15 years is a realistic timeline given all the challenges.

Forgetting all of that though, the problem to me specifically is that this is a government mandate that is going to disproportionately affect middle and lower classes and without any real positive impact.*

*Yes yes global warming bad, CO2 is evil blah, blah, blah, go after the supertankers, container ships and those giant floating hotels that people take on cruises, they produce way more emissions and can spread the cost way more evenly.
 
That line of cars at the Tesla chargers is an extreme example that occured during a large fire threat, and the power being turned off in the area.
 
This is not a bad idea however with charging times being what they are going to a "gas" station to fill up your EV like you would with an ICE car is not really feasible. Would you really want to go and spend an hour at a gas station just to fill up? I know I wouldn't, hell I don't have an hour to waste in the first place.

You also end up with the issue that was posted in Tesla thread, where there were like 20 superchargers and a huge line of cars waiting for them to become free.

The reality is that at this point if you can't charge where you park an EV is likely not for you.

No but if it takes that long to charge, you bought the car knowing this and should at this point, expect longer than a normal fuel stop. The new fuel stations that have been built here are not just a place to get fuel, they're trying to be an all encompassing oasis that has a restaurant. I'm really not sure where you're coming from in the outer suburbs of chicago that would require such a thing or why somebody would actively think "yes, lets have dinner/lunch here!" It doesn't make sense to me, but I personally don't like gas station restaurants anyways and assume they have the lowest barely legal food that makes McDonalds look like a classy restaurant.

During Swisstaly, @leviathan of course had to stop for charging much like the rest of us had to stop for fuel. Neither stop was really anything special. The Tesla stops were in much more convient places such as having grocery stores or a restaurant nearby. Davos, CH was probably the most scenic but none were terrible.

That said, fuel stations in the middle of the country have the space to include charging stations, why not have them? Theres still old pay phone posts in some areas with the phone removed, why not put one there for example?
 
@prizrak I think once governments set these targets in stone we will see a paradigm shift in focus from car makers in terms of their investment in BV R & D. They've all be dragging their heels because ICE is the core of their business and they are beholden to Big Oil.

You may be right in the way you compare phones to cars, but ultimately if the likes of GM, VW and Toyota are threatened with extinction unless they evolve you can bet your bollocks to a barn dance they will shift their focus in the right direction.
 
That line of cars at the Tesla chargers is an extreme example that occured during a large fire threat, and the power being turned off in the area.
No it was an example of many people traveling on the same road and using the supercharger half way through, it had nothing to do with fire threats.
No but if it takes that long to charge, you bought the car knowing this and should at this point, expect longer than a normal fuel stop.
But that presupposes that you had a choice in the first place, which is exactly what the UK government is removing.
That said, fuel stations in the middle of the country have the space to include charging stations, why not have them? Theres still old pay phone posts in some areas with the phone removed, why not put one there for example?
Oh I got no problem with adding charging points, there is literally no downside (as long as EVs aren't blocking the pumps like some assholes do with chargers and ICE cars)
but ultimately if the likes of GM, VW and Toyota are threatened with extinction unless they evolve you can bet your bollocks to a barn dance they will shift their focus in the right direction.
They are already shifting focus, especially the Japanese as their own government is putting pressure on them, however the problems I stated above aren't something that would go away. Not to mention Tesla has been very successful in the luxury market, which is why I-Pace and Taycan are things that exist.

I think a rather common misconception, and this isn't meant to be specifically aimed at you, is that once we light a fire under automakers' asses they will suddenly have some breakthrough tech they been sitting on for years or something. In reality there has always been a ton of RnD dollars poured into battery technology. While it's true that we didn't see a lot of it coming from the auto manufacturers, electronics manufacturers and the military have been spending a lot of their RnD budget that way. After all both benefit from longer lasting smaller batteries along with faster charging.

I don't see any issue with incentivizing EV technology innovation but mandating it based on some politician's opinion of what's good....
 
I think the other thing we will see happen is similar to what's happening with the Ultra Low Emissions Zone in London right now. They are hitting drivers of older, more polluting vehicles with hefty charges to access the zone, and using that revenue to subsidise purchases of newer, cleaner vehicles for business and individuals.

Apply that same logic in the future, and we may find we have grants to upgrade our homes and businesses to have charging points so we always have access to "fuel".
 
For one that's a well that's gonna dry up pretty quickly and again will hit those with less money the most, the ones who drive those older vehicles because they can't afford to upgrade even for subsidized price.

For two the issue with the idea of "charging for all" is that it basically requires off street parking for all and I doubt there is enough space for that. You could put a charging port every few meters on the sidewalks and such but that seems extremely wasteful and expensive since they would literally have to be on every single road.

For three there is still the issue of EVs not being particularly long range capable. I know driving distances in the UK and Europe are much shorter than US but people still drive on holiday to other countries that are well beyond a single charge capability of even the longest range EVs and that again is taking away from convenience/versatility of ICE. Right now one can make a choice whether it's worth it for them but in 15 years when that choice is removed?

Also what about supercars and other relatively low volume cars people buy for the fun aspect? I enjoy my big ass V8, yeah it's slower than almost every electric car out there this side of a Leaf (well slower accelerating, top speed might be higher but you aren't hitting those speeds outside of autobahn anyway) but there is a totality of experience that you don't get with a either a smaller turbo engine or an EV. By that same token electrifying all the things would basically kill off the MX-5 and similar cars as batteries are just too heavy. And sure this will only affect a small portion of people but by that same token since the portion of us petrol heads is so small we don't really create much pollution, especially since many of us have a separate daily or family car that we drive.
 
2035 is a guess, though I would hope that by selling electric cars as luxury now, the accessibility and price of electrical drivetrains drop making an e-golf or Malibu-e at the same price as an ICE car. Improving the electric power generation is the other part we need to focus on. Here I would hazard a guess that electrical generation is just enough to power what we currently have. Before forcing electric cars, we need to invest in the infrastructure.

And at this point, I couldn’t give a rats ass if we went hydrogen or battery charging as both end in having an electric motor driving the wheels.
 
Here I would hazard a guess that electrical generation is just enough to power what we currently have. Before forcing electric cars, we need to invest in the infrastructure.
It might not be as important as it seems at first glance. Assuming people have a place to charge most charging would take place overnight where demands on the grid are pretty low.

Another thing to consider would be road tax, currently a lot of it comes from fuel, what happens when cars don’t use that fuel anymore?
 
Posted a video in Tesla thread that puts some numbers to what some may construe as me rambling
 
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